Bayesian cricket statistics · Test match · 2001–present

Rethinking Test cricket statistics.

Era-corrected, opposition-weighted, venue-aware. Ask any question about any batter and get a calibrated, uncertainty-aware answer.

Ask →

Joe Root adjusted test average Smith vs Kohli in Asia Top 5 test batters since 2010 Pujara 4th innings vs Australia How confident are we Smith is #1?Scoring rates in tests since 2015

The Era Problem: Why Raw Averages Lie About Batters

When you compare Bradman's 99.94 to Root's 50.2 you're not comparing cricket ability — you're comparing eras. Using Bayesian shrinkage across 20 years of Cricsheet data, we show exactly how much era, pitch type, and opposition strength distort the numbers you see everywhere else.

Read article →

Recent Analyses

Does home advantage explain Kohli's record?

After venue and opposition adjustment, Kohli's home/away gap shrinks from 31 pts to 9 pts.

Is Babar Azam as good in tests as in ODIs?

Adjusted test avg of 41.2 — credible, but CI is wide given sample size (67 innings).

Rank the Fab 4 by adjusted ability

Smith 56.1, Root 54.7, Williamson 53.4, Kohli 51.9. Credible intervals overlap for positions 2–4.

Scoring rates in test cricket since 2015

Run rates up 18% vs 2001–2010 baseline. Partly explained by pitch prep and field restrictions.