Surrey won by 75 runs
Before a ball was bowled the model made Middlesex 62% favourites, from the two XIs that took the field. They lost.
Surrey win
Middlesex win
Turning point +12 to Surrey. 7.3, the chase: Mitchell Santner to Max Holden, wicket, 63/2, needing 132. Surrey went from 54% to 66%.
Moved it most Stephen Eskinazi −36.4 · Thomas Curran +32.2 · Nathan Smith +20.2 · BBA Geddes −18.0
| Batting | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Jacksc LBK Hollman b TG Helm | 97 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 173.2 | +12.1 |
| Dom Sibleyc & b NB Cornwell | 27 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 122.7 | −16.5 |
| Jason Royc & b LBK Hollman | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 | −3.7 |
| Sam Curranc JB Cracknell b NB Cornwell | 26 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 152.9 | +5.5 |
| Laurie Evansc SS Eskinazi b TG Helm | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 214.3 | +3.6 |
| Thomas Curranc LBK Hollman b TG Helm | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | −1.3 |
| OFM Sykesb RF Higgins | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 144.4 | −0.5 |
| Chris Jordanb RF Higgins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | −2.1 |
| Mitchell Santnernot out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | −0.1 |
| Nathan Smithnot out | 4* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200.0 | +1.7 |
| Extras lb 3, w 5 | 8 | |||||
| Total 20 ov, 9.70 an over | 194/8 | |||||
Did not bat Jordan Clark, Reece Topley
Fall of wickets 89-1 (Sibley, 8.4), 92-2 (Roy, 9.4), 145-3 (Curran, 15), 166-4 (Jacks, 16.5), 166-5 (Curran, 17), 175-6 (Evans, 18.2), 186-7 (Jordan, 19.1), 190-8 (Sykes, 19.4)
| Bowling | O | M | R | W | Econ | Dots | Wd | Nb | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Sharma | 3 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 13.00 | 4 | 1 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Noah Cornwell | 3 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 7.33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +11.9 |
| Thomas Helm | 4 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 12.00 | 10 | 1 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Zafar Gohar | 4 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Ryan Higgins | 3 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +5.8 |
| Luke Hollman | 3 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 4 | 1 | 0 | −12.7 |
| Batting | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Eskinazib MJ Santner | 20 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 87.0 | −36.4 |
| Kane Williamsonc JJ Roy b TK Curran | 26 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 173.3 | +8.5 |
| Max Holdenc NG Smith b MJ Santner | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 133.3 | −5.7 |
| BBA Geddesc OFM Sykes b NG Smith | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | −18.0 |
| Ryan Higginsc SM Curran b NG Smith | 27 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 103.8 | −4.3 |
| Joseph Cracknellc WG Jacks b TK Curran | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | −1.2 |
| Luke Hollmanb MJ Santner | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 171.4 | 0.0 |
| Zafar Goharc WG Jacks b RJW Topley | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | −0.6 |
| Thomas Helmc SM Curran b RJW Topley | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.9 | −0.1 |
| Noah Cornwellst LJ Evans b WG Jacks | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.7 | 0.0 |
| N Sharmanot out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 | 0.0 |
| Extras lb 2, w 4 | 6 | |||||
| Total 18.4 ov, 6.38 an over | 119 | |||||
Fall of wickets 34-1 (Williamson, 4), 63-2 (Holden, 7.3), 64-3 (Geddes, 8.4), 68-4 (Eskinazi, 9.4), 77-5 (Cracknell, 11.2), 95-6 (Hollman, 13.2), 98-7 (Gohar, 14.2), 107-8 (Helm, 16.1), 117-9 (Higgins, 17.5), 119-10 (Cornwell, 18.4)
| Bowling | O | M | R | W | Econ | Dots | Wd | Nb | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reece Topley | 4 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 13 | 0 | 0 | −15.3 |
| Thomas Curran | 3 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 5.33 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +33.5 |
| Sam Curran | 3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Mitchell Santner | 4 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 10 | 2 | 0 | +16.5 |
| Nathan Smith | 4 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 12 | 1 | 0 | +18.5 |
| William Jacks | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Win is the win chance a player added for his side, in points (100 = a match turned round): batting in the top table, bowling in the bottom. Point at or tap a player to see his balls on the chart.
The whole match on one screen: a row for every over, a square for every ball, coloured by how far it moved the match. Pick any ball, play it through, or click a name to follow one player.
The balls that decided it
